From RMB 61.799 billion in revenue to a RMB 3.28 trillion market cap: the three layers of pricing on Changxin Technology's first day of listing

Lead: On 2026年7月27日, ChangXin Technology listed on the STAR Market, and on its first day the stock closed up 465.82%, pushing its total market capitalization to about 3.28万亿元 and making it the largest listed company by A-share market cap. This price simultaneously priced in China's No. 1, global No. 4 position in the DRAM industry, the profit surge brought by memory price increases in 2026, and the capital market's long-term expectations for next-generation products and the domestic supply chain. The evidentiary strength of these three layers of value is not the same.

TL;DR

• ChangXin Technology is the largest integrated DRAM manufacturer in mainland China. Based on DRAM sales in 2025 Q4, the company's global market share was 7.67%, ranking No. 1 in China and No. 4 globally; Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron together still accounted for more than 90% of the global market.
• In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 617.99亿元 and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 18.75亿元, posting its first full-year attributable profit. In 2026 Q1, revenue rose to 508.00亿元, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company reached 247.62亿元. Management expects 2026 H1 revenue of 1100亿至1200亿元 and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 500亿至570亿元; the relevant forecasts have not been audited or reviewed.
• The surge in performance is related to technological upgrades and capacity release, and it also benefited significantly from the DRAM supply-demand tightness and price increases since 2025 H2. The company's consolidated gross margin rose from -1.93% in 2023 to 40.99% in 2025, and the memory cycle remains the core variable behind profit volatility.
• In 2025 product revenue, LPDDR accounted for 66.43% and DDR for 31.87%. The company has already mass-produced DDR5 and LPDDR5/5X. The prospectus does not disclose HBM mass production, revenue, or fundraising projects, so it is not appropriate at this stage to count HBM commercialization as realized performance.
• A closing price of 49元 corresponds to a total market capitalization of about 3.28万亿元, or about 1748 times 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company. At the start of the listing, freely tradable shares accounted for only 6.73% of total shares outstanding, and the small float amplified the tension between first-day price discovery and total market cap.

In one day, from 5792亿元 to 3.28万亿元

ChangXin Technology's offering price was 8.66元, and total shares outstanding after the offering were about 668.81亿 shares, implying an offering market cap of about 5792亿元. On 7月27日, the company opened at 49.50元 on its first trading day, hit an intraday high of 55.03元 and a low of 38.11元, and finally closed at 49.00元, up 465.82% from the offering price.

49元 multiplied by the post-offering total shares outstanding corresponds to a total market capitalization of about 3.28万亿元. The company thus became the largest listed company by A-share market cap. First-day turnover was about 1412亿元, with a turnover rate of 66.40%, while also setting an A-share single-stock daily turnover record.

The calculation of total market capitalization is straightforward; the first-day trading structure requires separate observation.

ChangXin Technology had about 668.81亿 shares outstanding after the offering, and at the start of the listing, freely tradable shares were about 45.03亿, accounting for 6.73% of total shares outstanding. The initial tradable market cap corresponding to 49元 was about 2206亿元. The market used less than 7% of total shares outstanding to complete first-day pricing, then mapped that price onto all shares, forming a 3.28万亿元 total market cap.

The first-day price incorporates scarce supply, IPO subscription funds, trading sentiment, and long-term industry expectations. It records the marginal price the market is willing to pay under a specific float structure, and it still requires more trading days and performance cycles to test a stable valuation.

China’s DRAM industry has for the first time gained a scaled capital-market benchmark

DRAM is the working memory of computing systems. When servers, personal computers, smartphones, smart vehicles, and various edge devices run programs, they all need DRAM to provide high-speed temporary data reads and writes. The expansion of compute infrastructure has increased demand for high-capacity, high-bandwidth memory, and upgrades in end devices have also continued to raise memory capacity per device.

This industry has long been dominated by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology. Omdia data cited in the prospectus shows that in 2025, the three companies' global DRAM sales shares were 33.96%, 34.48%, and 23.41%, respectively, totaling 91.85%.

ChangXin Technology has already entered this highly concentrated global competitive landscape. Based on DRAM sales in 2025 Q4, the company's global share rose to 7.67%, ranking No. 1 in China and No. 4 globally. The company has three 12-inch DRAM wafer fabs in Hefei and Beijing, covering chip R&D, wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing, module production, and end-product sales, and operates a complete chain under an IDM model.

A 7.67% global share still leaves a significant gap from the top three. For China's semiconductor industry, this share has already crossed the threshold from product validation to scaled manufacturing. DRAM process technology, yields, capacity, and customer qualification require long-term accumulation; scale expansion can also dilute equipment depreciation, improve R&D returns, and create more stable supply-chain coordination.

ChangXin Technology's listing provides an A-share benchmark for a pure DRAM asset that was previously missing. Industry scarcity constitutes the most solid layer of the first-day high valuation.

The product mix has already shifted toward DDR5 and LPDDR5

ChangXin Technology's revenue mainly comes from DDR and LPDDR.

DDR is aimed at servers, personal computers, and other scenarios, emphasizing performance, capacity, and reliability. LPDDR is aimed at smartphones, tablets, smart vehicles, and other mobile terminals, with greater emphasis on low power consumption. In 2025, the company's DDR revenue was 195.31亿元, accounting for 31.87% of main product revenue; LPDDR revenue was 407.04亿元, accounting for 66.43%; and other product revenue was 10.41亿元, accounting for 1.70%.

The company has already formed a product portfolio including DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4X, and LPDDR5/5X. Among them, DDR5 offers capacities of 16Gb, 24Gb, and 32Gb, with a top speed of 8000Mbps; LPDDR5/5X has a top speed of 10667Mbps. The company's self-developed DDR4 products stopped production at the end of 2024, and capacity has migrated to DDR5 and other new products.

The customer list covers Alibaba Cloud, ByteDance, Tencent, Lenovo, Xiaomi, Transsion, Honor, OPPO, and vivo. The simultaneous appearance of cloud vendors, PC makers, and smartphone brands shows that the products have entered multiple mainstream end-product chains. Customer coverage is important proof of mass-production capability; subsequent competition will still come down to product generation, stable supply, yield, unit cost, and bargaining power.

The product mix also defines the factual boundary of the current valuation. ChangXin Technology's disclosed scaled products are concentrated in DDR and LPDDR, and the fundraising projects focus on mass-production line technology upgrades, DRAM technology upgrades, and forward-looking technology R&D. The main body of the prospectus does not disclose HBM mass-production products, revenue scale, or clear fundraising projects.

AI servers are driving rapid global HBM demand growth, and the market easily connects DRAM leaders directly with the HBM narrative. The public filings do not yet support such a revenue mapping. ChangXin Technology's current commercial value comes from mainstream DRAM mass production, domestic substitution, and product upgrades; HBM-related progress will have to wait for the company's subsequent statutory disclosures.

Three years of financial data record a full cycle of capacity and price recovery

ChangXin Technology's financial changes over the past three years have been dramatic.

From 2023 to 2025, revenue grew from 90.87亿元 to 617.99亿元, a compound annual growth rate of 160.78%. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company turned positive for the first time in 2025, and operating cash flow also shifted from negative to 365.20亿元.

The improvement in gross margin better reflects the profit elasticity of the memory industry. The company's consolidated gross margin rose from -1.93% in 2023 to 5.58% in 2024, reaching 40.99% in 2025. After excluding the impact of reversal of inventory write-down provisions, the 2025 gross margin was still 37.81%, showing that the earnings recovery has an operating foundation.

Two factors jointly drove the change.

The first is scale and product upgrades. Capacity utilization improved, the share of DDR5 and LPDDR5 series increased, and unit costs declined as mass production ramped. In 2025, the unit selling price of DDR products rose 61.00% year on year, while unit cost fell 26.26% year on year, creating a dual improvement in both price and cost in the same year.

The second is the memory price cycle. The company explicitly stated in the prospectus that since 2025 H2, the DRAM market has been tight in supply and demand, and prices have risen rapidly. Memory chips are highly standardized, capital intensive, and slow to expand. When supply is tight, price increases can quickly boost gross profit; when supply recovers or demand weakens, profits can also contract rapidly.

2026 Q1 pushed this elasticity to an even higher level. The company achieved operating revenue of 508.00亿元, up 719.13% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 247.62亿元; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company excluding non-recurring items of 263.41亿元; and net cash flow from operating activities of 425.66亿元.

Management expects 2026 H1 operating revenue of 1100亿至1200亿元, up 612.53%至677.31% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 500亿至570亿元; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company excluding non-recurring items of 520亿至580亿元. These figures are management's preliminary estimates, have not been audited or reviewed, and do not constitute a performance commitment.

The profit surge in 2026 has already exceeded the scale that a typical manufacturing capacity expansion could explain. Product upgrades, capacity utilization, and the price cycle have all worked together, and the price variable will directly affect the sustainability of subsequent quarters.

95.93亿元 of R&D spending supports catch-up, while depreciation simultaneously raises operating leverage

DRAM competition is built on continuous R&D and capital-intensive investment. Product upgrades require simultaneous advances in memory-cell architecture, processes, materials, equipment, yield, chip design, and packaging/testing; no single breakthrough can independently create a scaled product.

ChangXin Technology's R&D spending in 2025 was 95.93亿元, accounting for 15.52% of revenue. From 2023 to 2025, cumulative R&D spending reached 206.05亿元, accounting for 21.67% of cumulative revenue over the three years. As of the end of 2025, the company had 6259 R&D personnel, accounting for 32.43% of total employees; 3929 domestic patents, including 3165 invention patents; and 3043 overseas patents.

R&D directions cover the fifth-generation process, subsequent DDR5 products, LPDDR5X, LPDDR6, and more. The company already has a relatively strong engineering foundation, but technological catch-up still needs to keep competing with the product roadmaps, capital expenditure, and customer ecosystems of the three global leaders.

The asset-heavy model amplifies cycles. The company's depreciation of fixed assets rose from 105.55亿元 in 2023 to 246.80亿元 in 2025. When capacity runs at high load, depreciation can be spread across more products; when prices fall or capacity utilization declines, fixed costs can quickly squeeze profits.

ChangXin Technology's high-profit years require three conditions at the same time: product generation, capacity utilization, and market prices. R&D determines the long-term position, while the cycle determines the slope of short-term profits.

The 579亿元 IPO turns technological catch-up into a capital-allocation issue

ChangXin Technology originally planned to allocate the 295亿元 of raised funds to three types of projects:

1. Storage wafer manufacturing mass-production line technology upgrade and renovation project, 75亿元;
2. DRAM storage technology upgrade project, 130亿元;
3. Dynamic random-access memory forward-looking technology research and development project, 90亿元.

Before the exercise of the over-allotment option, this offering raised total funds of 579.19亿元, with expected net proceeds of 576.38亿元, about 281亿元 more than the originally planned investment amount. If the greenshoe mechanism is fully exercised within the prescribed period, total funds raised could reach about 666亿元, with expected net proceeds of about 663.1亿元. The final exercise of the greenshoe remains subject to subsequent announcements by the issuer.

Adequate funds can support process upgrades, equipment investment, and forward-looking R&D, reducing financing constraints during the technological catch-up period. The scale of oversubscription also makes capital efficiency more important.

As of the end of 2025, the company had cumulative undistributed profits of -366.50亿元, and 2025 marked its first full-year attributable profit. New funds need to establish clear discipline among R&D, technical renovation, capacity expansion, cash reserves, and shareholder returns. Capital expenditure at the peak of the memory cycle especially needs pace control, because capacity deployment often lags investment decisions, and new supply may be released in concentration during the next price cycle.

Over the next two years, the key focus will shift from "whether funds can be obtained" to "whether the funds can narrow the technology gap and generate a reasonable return."

A 3.28万亿元 market cap contains three sets of profit assumptions

ChangXin Technology's closing price of 49元 corresponds to a total market capitalization of about 3.28万亿元. Using different profit bases yields completely different valuation pictures.

Using 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 18.75亿元, the market cap is about 1748 times net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company. This basis includes the company's special stage of having just crossed breakeven and cannot represent 2026 earnings power.

Using the 2026 H1 net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company forecast of 500亿至570亿元, the current market cap is about 57 to 66 times the half-year forecast profit. Doubling the half-year profit mechanically gives a full-year scenario of 1000亿至1140亿元, corresponding to a market cap-to-profit ratio of about 29 to 33 times. This result is only a static scenario, not the company's full-year guidance. DRAM prices, product mix, capacity utilization, and second-half expense changes will all alter final profit.

The market adopted on the first day a profit expectation closer to a high-prosperity year, while also pricing in domestic substitution, product upgrades, and long-term technological breakthroughs. The smaller initial float further amplified the marginal trading price.

A 3.28万亿元 market cap needs three sets of results to support it together:

1. DRAM prices remain relatively strong, allowing 2026 profits to continue;
2. DDR5, LPDDR5X, and subsequent products expand their share, with growth gradually becoming less dependent on a single price increase factor;
3. Fundraising pushes process and product upgrades, and the technology gap keeps narrowing.

Among them, the first determines near-term earnings, the second determines medium-term quality, and the third determines the long-term ceiling.

Over the next year, watch six data points

ChangXin Technology has moved from the industry-validation stage into the capital-market continuous-pricing stage. Over the next twelve months, six data points can distinguish cyclical profits from structural growth.

1. DRAM prices and quarterly gross margin

The sharp rise in gross margin since 2025 is highly correlated with price increases. Quarterly gross margin can be the earliest reflection of supply-demand changes, product mix, and cost dilution effects.

2. Revenue share of DDR5 and LPDDR5X

A higher share of next-generation products can raise unit value and also verify the company's continued rollout capacity among server, PC, smartphone, and automotive customers.

3. Global sales share

7.67% was the stage result for 2025 Q4. Whether the share can hold amid price and capacity changes will determine whether the No. 4 global position is stable.

4. R&D milestones and mass-production yields

Forward-looking projects such as the fifth-generation process and LPDDR6 need to gradually move into product validation and mass production. Only when the R&D directions disclosed in public filings are converted into yield, customer qualification, and revenue can they enter commercial valuation.

5. Capital expenditure and free cash flow

Oversubscribed funds have expanded investment capacity, but they may also enlarge the risk of investment at the cycle peak. Capital expenditure, operating cash flow, and equipment depreciation need to be viewed on the same table.

6. Float structure after lock-up expiration

On the first day of listing, freely tradable shares accounted for 6.73%. Subsequent lock-up expirations will change the supply structure, and the first-day price and total market cap will need to pass a more complete liquidity test.

Closing: industry scarcity is established, but the market cap must pass through the memory cycle

ChangXin Technology has established a scaled manufacturing foundation for China's DRAM industry. Three 12-inch wafer fabs, a 7.67% global sales share, mass production of DDR5 and LPDDR5/5X, and mainstream customer adoption are all industrial achievements that can be verified.

The 2026 profit surge is also real. Single-quarter revenue of 508亿元, single-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 247.62亿元, and a H1 revenue forecast of 1100亿至1200亿元 record the operating elasticity created by the overlap of product upgrades, capacity release, and memory price increases.

3.28 trillion yuan in first-day market capitalization enters a higher evidentiary threshold. It requires the company to defend share and profit when the price cycle turns down, maintain capital discipline after massive financing, and turn forward-looking R&D into mass-production products. Market narratives such as HBM also need to wait for the company’s formal disclosure and cannot be pre-emptively booked into realized revenue.

ChangXin Technology’s industrial position already rests on its fabs, products, and customers. Its long-term value will be determined by gross margin, technology generation, and free cash flow in the next cycle.

---

Main sources

1. ChangXin Technology Initial Public Offering and Listing on the STAR Market Prospectus, Shanghai Stock Exchange, May 2026.
2. ChangXin Technology IPO materials, China Capital Market Legal Information Disclosure Platform, data as of 2026-07-27.
3. STAR Market closing report: ChangXin Technology rose 465.82% from the offering price, Xinhua Finance, 2026-07-27.
4. ChangXin Technology to start online subscription tomorrow; “green shoe mechanism” may push total fundraising to 66.6 billion yuan, National Business Daily, 2026-07-15.
5. ChangXin Technology’s first-day closing report, Yicai, Eastmoney, 2026-07-27.

Notes on factual status

• The market price and market capitalization data in this article are as of the 2026-07-27 close. First-day trading was highly volatile and does not represent subsequent trading prices.
• The 2026H1 performance range was preliminarily estimated by the company’s management and has not been audited or reviewed; it does not constitute a performance commitment.
• The 100 billion to 114 billion yuan full-year 2026 profit figure is only a static scenario of “second-half profit equals first-half profit,” used to illustrate valuation sensitivity and does not represent the company’s forecast.
• The 7.67% global market share is the result calculated by Omdia based on DRAM sales in 2025Q4 and is not equivalent to the full-year average share.
• The maximum fundraising amount corresponding to the green shoe mechanism remains subject to subsequent issuance announcements.
• The prospectus did not disclose HBM mass production, revenue, or explicit fundraising projects. Market rumors involving HBM were not included in this article’s factual assessment.

Disclaimer: This article is based on public information for industrial and financial analysis and does not constitute securities investment advice, an earnings commitment, or an offer to buy or sell. Storage prices, product progress, customer certification, and capital expenditures may change; please refer to the company’s subsequent statutory disclosures.