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Research note · 12 July 2026

Event Contracts and Bounded Outcomes

Event contracts let markets price questions with finite, verifiable outcomes. A bounded structure is not a limitation; it is the precondition for clarity.

What an event contract specifies

Event contracts are not a single product category. They are a design space built from a defined question, a closed set of outcomes, a time window, and a published settlement path. Before a participant considers a position, those terms should be inspectable.

For readers, the central questions are not only what can be traded, but how the contract resolves, which source determines the result, and which risks remain when prices move quickly. A market can be technically onchain while still depending on rules and data that participants should understand.

Good market design is not about maximizing activity. It is about specifying contracts the world can actually resolve.

Why bounded outcomes matter

A finite outcome set makes exposure easier to describe and settlement easier to verify. It does not remove uncertainty or trading risk. It makes uncertainty legible: participants can inspect the terms, understand the timeframe, and verify the settlement source before acting.

Platform profiles should therefore distinguish sourced facts from editorial analysis. Product terms can change; the original documentation remains the reference for current rules, fees, and risk parameters.